Only days left

THE assorted 108 candidates standing for Westminster have now less than a week to convince us all that they and their parties are the ones to represent the 1.7m+ inhabitants of this ‘wee country’.

The election broadcasts are all but over (thank goodness!) and candidates are now girding their loins for a final flurry of knocking on doors and chasing down each and every media opportunity that is going.

But who are the real targets for the candidates. On the unionist side are the DUP seeking to hold off the TUV and Conservatives and Unionists to shore up their vote. Within the nationalist community is it a straight tussle between Sinn Féin and the SDLP to see who can gain/lose in a particular constituency? Does the Alliance Party want to stave off Green Party challenges to core votes?

The real task ahead for all the Northern Ireland parties is to win over, not the floating voter, but the apathetic constituent who has no plans to vote.

The televised debates in the UK have by the nature of their prime time status inflated voter interest, but will it be enough here in Northern Ireland to increase turn-out.

While next week we’ll be looking at who wins what and where, everyone should be keeping a wary eye on turn-out. That may give a true indication of the level of interest in politics here.

Election stories: continued

SOUTH Belfast. A constituency of contradictions: from the housing wastelands of semi detached havens in Four Winds and Carryduff through to the housing wastelands of the Lower Ormeau terraced communities. Where a bus can pass through property values of a few thousand pounds to hundreds of thousands of pounds; where the Malone Road fashionistas can head to the polling booths along with the Donegall Pass working class families.

And, it could be one of the most interesting constituency battles of the Westminster campaign.

As the clock ticked down to the close of nominations, Sinn Féin parliamentary candidate Alex Maskey pulled out of the race to allow a clear run for the SDLP’s Alasdair McDonnell.

Then the DUP’s Jimmy Spratt offered the Conservative and Unionist’s Paula Bradshaw an Assembly seat if she stood aside.

But dig a little deeper.

Sinn Féin had little hope of taking the seat.

And the DUP offer was a time limited offer, because come this time next year there will be an Assembly election.

In other words, sometimes the headlines can obscure the political machinations behind the news stories.

Other candidates are also standing in South Belfast. They are Alliance MLA Anna Lo and the Green’s Adam McGibbon.

Pity they couldn’t have had a row to make it even more interesting!

Starter for ten…

Sir Winston Churchill once said that “democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried”.

Forget policies; forget being door stepped by earnest canvassers, bombarded with election literature and subject to cringe-worthy party election broadcasts. We now have democracy reduced to a game show.

Who is the smoothest talker, who’s the best turned out, who has the most memorable sound bite?

All that’s needed is Simon Cowell and a phone in election and the whole thing can be exported to the US of A…oh, hold on a minute that’s where the whole thing started with the oft quoted and too little analysed JFK/Nixon debate.

But, despite the fears and the 76 rules, the UK election game show featuring Brown, Cameron and Clegg, has turned out to be engaging viewing, with each nuance examined and each faux pas picked over by pundits and public alike.

Then we have the TV debate in Northern Ireland.

It had been going so well until then.

Of course, one may have expected the Orange/Green tribal politics to slip off the mask of decency and snarls to unveil the toothy grins of the political predators.

Instead we had what we have all known since the late 80s; Northern Ireland politics is all about scoring points against the party ostensibly on your side.

The DUP’s aim has been to maintain their poll lead over the Conservative and Unionists, while they in turn want to retain what they feel is their rightful place as power brokers in Westminster.

Sinn Féin wants to make sure that they can hold seats against the SDLP, who hope to raise their profile at Westminster.

But let’s be honest, the Northern Ireland party leaders, albeit all having their own positive points – somewhere – are a pale imitation of the bickering UK national pretenders to the prime ministerial crown.

And to a certain extent what else can we expect?

Wise men came from the east

IT is said that the wise men came from the east. And every Glentoran fan maintains this to be the case. But can a wise woman from the east represent the ‘wise men’ from the east in Westminster?

It’s set to be the battle of the party leaders as Peter Robinson seeks to enhance his 49% poll share last time out in East Belfast and Sir Reg Empey, MLA for the area, wants to nibble away at the DUP poll backing with his Westminster candidate for the consitituency, former Irish rugby star, Trevor Ringland.

And into the fray is the Lord Mayor, Naomi Long of the Alliance Party.

In the past two elections in East Belfast, Alliance has been nudging the 20% mark. Given Ms Long’s profile as Mayor, she could attract a few extra votes. But where will these come from? Will it be from DUP female voters? Or will her moderate tones appeal to UUP voters who are Tory refusniks? Or will it be from Sinn Féin voters who think that Ms Long is so nice she deserves that wee ‘x’ on the ballot paper?

Where Naomi takes votes from could indicate so much. On the other hand it will show so little in the first past the post poll.

What can be said definitively is that should Ms Long drive a wedge between the unionist dominance, the Liberal Democrats would be eternally grateful for what would effectively be an extra seat when it comes to bargaining in what the pollsters predict will be a hung Parliament.

Deal? Or no deal?

WITH the North Down settling down to a straight shoot out between the Conservatives and Unionist candidate Ian Parsley and the independent unionist Lady Sylvia Hermon, attention has been turned to the other constituencies.

North Antrim looks like being a straight contest between the TUV’s Jim Allister and the DUP’s Ian Paisley Jnr. But elsewhere the DUP has dangled a particularly tasty carrot to the Conservatives and Unionists.

Said Carrot is that the DUP will step aside in either South Belfast, or Fermanagh/South Tyrone, thereby all but ensuring a unionist will occupy those seats.

On the face of it a sensible ‘unionist unity’ approach: but there are a few problems, the main one being that Sir Reg Empey and his bedfellow, Conservative Leader David Cameron have said ‘no way, Jose’!

Cameron has pledged that the Tories will fight every seat in the UK.

Also, who would be the ones to pick the constituency? Would there be a panel of arbitration?

“Tell you what we’re farmers so we’ll go with the sticks”. “Nah, we’re getting a wee bit of heat from the media and South Belfast contains some housing developments…so fresh country air seems a good idea.”

The more cynical of commentators could surmise that the DUP don’t want to be anywhere near South Belfast, but lest you assume we are cynical, it is much more rational to assume that trying to embarrass the Tories and Ulster Unionists was too much of a chance to pass up.

And therein lies the rub. For all the DUP, TUV, Tory/UUP and other assorted election battles, it is never really about battling republicanism or nationalism. It really has only ever been about who has unionist bragging rights.

End of an era

IAN Paisley Snr took his final bow at Westminster this week, with his coda being a final question at PMQs.

The Prime Minister took the time to pay tribute to the ‘Big Man’, while Secretary of State Shaun Woodward gave a send-off to that other veteran MP who is packing in Parliament, Eddie McGrady.

They were two men whose work in the headlines often over-shadowed other matters, such as their toiling on behalf of the rural community and many, many constituencies.

Throughout the Troubles they were two of the voices many associated with commentary or even invective, voices called upon for comment in the wake of tragedy.

With the passing from the political spotlight some may regard it as the ending of an era.

But, one thing is sure; with Paisley passing from the Parliamentary stage…the volume levels on your TV and radio will no longer need to be adjusted when Northern Ireland questions and debates are covered.

Myself alone

THE much predicted came to pass this week when Lady Sylvia Hermon MP officially snubbed her erstwhile party colleagues to declare that she would stand as an independent in the parliamentary poll.

Of course, her not agreeing with the electoral link between the Ulster Unionists and the Tories was the main factor in Lady Sylvia resigning and deciding to run as an independent candidate.

This, of course makes North Down one of the more interesting constituencies when the anticipated May election comes around.

There’ll be a former Alliance councillor running as a candidate for the Conservatives and Unionists and there’ll be a former Ulster Unionist MP running as an independent.

This means that the DUP could hold the balance of power…

Should the DUP run a candidate would they be able to run through the middle of the Tory/UUP and independent candidates? If they decided, as has been rumoured, not to run North Down what would the impact be for Ian Parsley and Lady Sylvia Hermon?

As for the Alliance Party, well there are rumours that they have a Fatwa on Mr Parsley who last year was their candidate in the Euro elections, before defecting to the Tories.

North Down more interesting than North Antrim? Whatever next?

X marks the spot

Jack considers his options as an MP

ARRRGGHH there be gold for those that follow ye old pirate map that shows the way to Westminster…well there used to be!

In days of yesteryear, before freedom of information requests and expenses scandals, politicians seeking your ‘x’ on the Westminster ballot paper could look forward to finding a veritable trove of delights, should they persuade enough of us to ink the appropriate box.

But now the focus is just getting your vote.

And election fever has kicked into high gear, with almost all the candidates poised to hit the stump.

First out of the blocks in launching their campaign has been the DUP, with their errrrr inspirational and snappy ‘Let’s Keep Northern Ireland Moving Forward’ election campaign launched with suitable fanfare in Belfast on Thursday.

And, words came forth from party leader Peter Robinson like “contrite” and “apologise”. Who would have thought?

However, the main announcement was that DUP MLAs who scored with a Westminster seat would have to quit as MLA when they become an MP.

One has to wonder whether they would have taken such a tack had there not been such a public furore.

Let’s hope that all parties seeking an MP’s salary will take a similar course.

And, within the DUP there is an exception to the rule – the Party Leader will be allowed to be both an MP and an MLA should he be elected again to Westminster.

That means he will be an MP, an MLA, Party Leader and, at least for another year or so First Minister. Maybe we’ve got the maths wrong, but that’s quadruple jobbing.