Only days left

THE assorted 108 candidates standing for Westminster have now less than a week to convince us all that they and their parties are the ones to represent the 1.7m+ inhabitants of this ‘wee country’.

The election broadcasts are all but over (thank goodness!) and candidates are now girding their loins for a final flurry of knocking on doors and chasing down each and every media opportunity that is going.

But who are the real targets for the candidates. On the unionist side are the DUP seeking to hold off the TUV and Conservatives and Unionists to shore up their vote. Within the nationalist community is it a straight tussle between Sinn Féin and the SDLP to see who can gain/lose in a particular constituency? Does the Alliance Party want to stave off Green Party challenges to core votes?

The real task ahead for all the Northern Ireland parties is to win over, not the floating voter, but the apathetic constituent who has no plans to vote.

The televised debates in the UK have by the nature of their prime time status inflated voter interest, but will it be enough here in Northern Ireland to increase turn-out.

While next week we’ll be looking at who wins what and where, everyone should be keeping a wary eye on turn-out. That may give a true indication of the level of interest in politics here.

Election stories: continued

SOUTH Belfast. A constituency of contradictions: from the housing wastelands of semi detached havens in Four Winds and Carryduff through to the housing wastelands of the Lower Ormeau terraced communities. Where a bus can pass through property values of a few thousand pounds to hundreds of thousands of pounds; where the Malone Road fashionistas can head to the polling booths along with the Donegall Pass working class families.

And, it could be one of the most interesting constituency battles of the Westminster campaign.

As the clock ticked down to the close of nominations, Sinn Féin parliamentary candidate Alex Maskey pulled out of the race to allow a clear run for the SDLP’s Alasdair McDonnell.

Then the DUP’s Jimmy Spratt offered the Conservative and Unionist’s Paula Bradshaw an Assembly seat if she stood aside.

But dig a little deeper.

Sinn Féin had little hope of taking the seat.

And the DUP offer was a time limited offer, because come this time next year there will be an Assembly election.

In other words, sometimes the headlines can obscure the political machinations behind the news stories.

Other candidates are also standing in South Belfast. They are Alliance MLA Anna Lo and the Green’s Adam McGibbon.

Pity they couldn’t have had a row to make it even more interesting!

Progressive Justice plans

MINISTER for Justice, David Ford, comes from a party known for its allegedly progressive politicals – maybe some may even say that the party is a liberal party. Heaven forefend!

For when David settled into his big chair at the justice crib the first priority he has put in place is prisons.

Yeah, the lock ‘em up type at Magheraberry, not them nancy open prisons…much favoured by those liberal types.

This could be a sign of a mature thought process, identifying the most expensive and probably most criticised prison regime in the UK.

But where was the progressive attitude to justice and policing? Where was the shift from a punitive approach to one of prevention? Where was the liberal approach?

Mmmm, that must be because we live in Northern Ireland.

Starter for ten…

Sir Winston Churchill once said that “democracy is the worst form of government except all the others that have been tried”.

Forget policies; forget being door stepped by earnest canvassers, bombarded with election literature and subject to cringe-worthy party election broadcasts. We now have democracy reduced to a game show.

Who is the smoothest talker, who’s the best turned out, who has the most memorable sound bite?

All that’s needed is Simon Cowell and a phone in election and the whole thing can be exported to the US of A…oh, hold on a minute that’s where the whole thing started with the oft quoted and too little analysed JFK/Nixon debate.

But, despite the fears and the 76 rules, the UK election game show featuring Brown, Cameron and Clegg, has turned out to be engaging viewing, with each nuance examined and each faux pas picked over by pundits and public alike.

Then we have the TV debate in Northern Ireland.

It had been going so well until then.

Of course, one may have expected the Orange/Green tribal politics to slip off the mask of decency and snarls to unveil the toothy grins of the political predators.

Instead we had what we have all known since the late 80s; Northern Ireland politics is all about scoring points against the party ostensibly on your side.

The DUP’s aim has been to maintain their poll lead over the Conservative and Unionists, while they in turn want to retain what they feel is their rightful place as power brokers in Westminster.

Sinn Féin wants to make sure that they can hold seats against the SDLP, who hope to raise their profile at Westminster.

But let’s be honest, the Northern Ireland party leaders, albeit all having their own positive points – somewhere – are a pale imitation of the bickering UK national pretenders to the prime ministerial crown.

And to a certain extent what else can we expect?

What was missing on the Celtic fringe?

ON Wednesday the leaders of Plaid Cymru and the SNP stood together to outline what role they could play should there be a hung Parliament.

Proudly they declaimed how the ‘Celtic Nations’ could hold the balance of power, and what they could gain from such a position.

But, it was noticeable that there was a nation (okay, region) missing from the so-called Celtic fringe.

Even the more radical Plaid Cymru and SNP supporters couldn’t share the stage with politicians from Northern Ireland!

One party official was heard to mutter: “We’re mad, but we’re not THAT mad!”

Et tu Brute?

IN one of the defining Shakespearian scenes, Caesar turns to the man landing his fatal stab wound. He gazes upon his killer and asks of the man he assumed was his friend, ‘Et tu Brute’. For those of you who missed studying Latin in state school, or for whom Shakespeare is written in a foreign language the appropriate Belfast translation is ‘Brutus? I thought ye were me mate?’

Alan McFarland, whilst no doubt wrestling with his conscience, must have thought long and hard about delivering the blow of his resignation from the Ulster Unionist Party. Will it be a fatal blow?

With the election date set to be announced in a few days, Mr McFarland’s resignation is timely for the opponents of the Conservatives and Unionists, but also comes far enough from the suspected polling date that it cannot be seen as being vindictive.

Mr McFarland’s decision is as a result of him being uncomfortable with the UUP/Tory marriage of convenience.

Fair play to a man of conscience, but it also places some doubt over Mr McFarland’s future as an MLA after 2011. Last time out he got in as the last candidate elected, just 731 votes ahead of the next placed candidate, from the DUP.

While a week is a long time in politics, a year is not nearly long enough to decide where exactly he is to sit in the Assembly chamber come plenary sessions. DUP benches? Not likely. But then again there is also that other North Down independently minded MLA in the shape of the Green Party’s Brian Wilson to sit alongside.

The cost of justice

NORTHERN Ireland’s future Attorney General needs more staff than his Scottish equivalent and he’ll sit at meetings of the Executive: so says the man who many believe will land the job, John Larkin QC.

A report from the Attorney General designate, lodged in the Assembly said the budget needed for the Attorney General’s office should be £1.3m.

Given the past record in Northern Ireland of legal challenges, judicial reviews and legal cases against 11 departments and a plethora of next step agencies, it could be regarded as cheap at half the price. Okay, the QC didn’t actually use those words but as they say in parts of Belfast: “You get me drift big lad!”

The highly regarded Mr Larkin is well known to the political elites, having represented Peter Robinson, Gerry Adams and Ian Paisley.

Mr Larkin’s report came hot on the heels of an Assembly Supply Resolution on Policing and Justice, in which many members commended work such as that of the Youth Justice Agency.

The apparatus is beginning to be put in place that will see the devolving Policing and Justice ready for the off in a few short weeks.

But what of the Minister? David Ford is the man widely thought to be shoe in for the job. But the SDLP has put forward Alban Maginnis for the post. And, he might even get UUP backing when it comes down to the vote in the Assembly on the Justice post.

The UUP and SDLP have not said they, at any time, will not co-operate with the new structures, but is this the first tentative steps towards taking a pseudo-opposition stance?

When the bean counters and political anoraks scour the counting tables come election time, will an alliance without Alliance create an opposition before the 2011 Assembly election? Probably not, but maybe by then the ‘unofficial opposition’ will resign their ministerial seats….sorry we were straying into the realms of fantasy there for a few short moments.

Prepping for the end

Preparatory schools will now only
be allowed to exist in Narnia

EDUCATION Minister Caitriona Ruane’s decision to end any funding of preparatory schools has received much coverage.


With the Equality Impact Assessment consultation about to end, DENI officials will be poring over letters, representations and maybe even some reasoned arguments from both sides.


Whether right or wrong, Caitriona seems now to be aiming to be the first minister in history to either end an unequal system, or drive the most wealthy of parents to create a real two-tier system of education.


Only the really, really wealthy will send their offspring to prep schools, cutting off the middle classes from their aspirations for their little darlings. The primary schools will then be overwhelmed with Tarquins and Trixibelles, leading to more and more barristers on the average PTA committee, leading to more and more headaches for the Minister when each of the PTA committees and boards of governors try and find a way to get more cash, perhaps even with a Judicial Review or six thrown in.


Congratulations to Minister Ruane for making sure that the administration of education is never boring!

Just weeks to wait

THE Saville Inquiry’s much awaited conclusion will soon be upon us. Secretary of State, Shaun Woodward said this week that when he receives the inquiry report on 22 March, he’ll publish it within two weeks.

So, after beginning in 1998 – yes last century – the long and arduous journey will be over.

Will relatives of those dead and injured on Bloody Sunday receive closure? Who knows?

Will there finally be a definitive account of that tragic day? Who knows?

What can be said with certainty is that solicitors and barristers will be shedding a silent tear for the end of the cash cow that so many suckled upon.

And, given the timescales, the inquiry report may yet end up on the shelf. If Shaun Woodward takes two weeks to look at the report, and one factors in the Easter Break, it will be close to the time that Prime Minister Gordon Brown asks the Queen to dissolve Parliament.

That means the inquiry report will languish until new MPs take their seats. And at best, in this scenario it could be a new Government that will be faced with handling the inquiry report launch.

Should it be a hung Parliament, the wait could be even longer – one can only hope that it will see the light of day eventually!

Big man’s penultimate bow

The Big Man and Bertie

EVERYONE has to end their time in the sun, whether voluntarily or reluctantly. The decision by the Rev Dr Ian Paisley – a.k.a. The Big Man – not to stand for Westminster attracted global headlines. Seriously – news outlets from Bangor to Bangkok decided it was worthy of attention.


Of course there still remains the matter of whether The Big Man will quit his North Antrim Assembly seat in 2011, but like, loathe, love or abhor him, politics will be much duller for his absence.


In a world dominated by the grey, Ian Paisley was a splash of rhetorical colour. Some of what he said was offensive to some, a salve to others; some of what he said made sense, some seemed akin to the ravings of the unhinged.


And, it was this mixture of reactions that many struggled to encapsulate this week.


As attention turned to the so-called ‘battle royale’ between TUV leader Jim Allister and, at this stage unconfirmed candidate, Ian Jnr, commentators and the public struggled for the best way to describe the legacy of The Big Man.


Did his sermons and evangelistic unionism keep the Troubles going on longer than they should? Would Sunningdale have worked? Were the Anglo-Irish Agreement protests the catalyst in Dublin and London that would pave the way to the eventual Good Friday Agreement? And what were the jokes he shared with Marty?


But all seem to be agreed that the answer to whether he will be forgotten is “NEVER! NEVER! NEVER!”

A word

THIS is a word to those that believe blowing a courthouse up is an act of courage. This is a word to those that believe that leaving a mortar bomb in a residential area is an act of courage. This is a word to those that believe that stripping and binding a man before shooting him in the back of the head is an act of courage.


This word is a simple word that even your twisted, distorted and diseased minds might understand.


This word is: ‘leave’.


You assert your right to fight, but don’t have the courage to fight.


You demand unity bathed in blood.


You deny the words and the votes of the vast majority on this island.


You cower in darkened corners believing your own myths.


Remember the word: ‘leave’.


Leave those of us who believe in democracy, even those that came to it belatedly.


Leave the island to those that want to build a future for our children, whether it be a united island or part of the United Kingdom.


Leave your distorted view of history.


Leave your primary school belief systems.


But most of all: just leave.


Here we do not want or need a future dripping in blood; we do not want a future that is an economic wasteland; we do not want a future where children cower.


To quote the words of Belfast punk band Stiff Little Fingers:

“How can you convince yourself that what you do is right”.

In the same song SLF said:

“Each new day a bullet. Each victim someone’s son. And ignorance kills Irishmen.”

Take your ignorance, your casual brutality and your puffed up belief in courage that really is cowardice and just leave.


When you wash off the gunshot residue, or bleach the stains of blood away; or run away from the burning building lie awake at night. Lie awake and dream of what you have taken. Lie awake at night and wonder at the pain you cause. Lie awake and see if you really believe that what you are doing will achieve anything other than misery. Lie awake and curse the darkness for it is a foe more real than the demons that crowd your daylight terrors.


You are nothing, you offer nothing and you take so much in exchange for weeping and despair.


Now, for one last time, just leave.

The best laid plans of mice and men…

YOU can plan for every eventuality then something comes out of left field and throws all your carefully constructed contingencies into chaos.

No matter what your political hue, no matter your community cry, it seems we now destined to live with that worst Chinese curse – to live in interesting times.

The best laid plans are awry, and now plans must be revived, amended and ultimately thrown away on a daily, if not hourly basis.

The devolution of policing and justice has been heralded for too long as the deal breaker, the final piece.

At the turn of the year few could have suspected that certain local politicians were being watched by an ever voracious media, preparing to unleash a storm of stories that some have dubbed the ‘perfect political storm’.

And, at the time of writing no-one, except those cloistered behind closed doors at Stormont Castle, can tell how close we are to witnessing the devolution of policing and justice or how close we are to real political collapse.

Cash crises

IF the cost of preventing climate change seems high, the cost to NI plc of not devolving policing and justice could soon prove very high indeed in these cash-strapped times.

Gordon Brown has warned that if we don’t get it sorted soon the ‘generous financial settlement’ may be off the table.

Trying to save the world is comparable to the trials and tribulations of our so-called political elite.

Gordon must be pondering whether that the £1 billion bonanza promised for policing and justice could be used to save a South Seas island from devastating floods rather than thrown down the political black hole that passes for democracy here in ‘Norn Iron’.

No more secrets

PLANNING to throw a few quid to support your local political party? [Are you mad?] Well, should you really want to back one of Norn Iron’s political organisations you can no longer keep that secret.

Your friends, colleagues and the generally nosey will in the future be able to find out who has been reaching for the cheque book to back a political party.

Here laws differ from the rest of the UK. Donations must be reported to the Electoral Commission, but are kept secret from the public lest we spill the beans and a donor’s security is compromised. That law ends in October next year.

With the NIO expected to consult on proposed changes, the Electoral Commission asked some ordinary people what they thought…the result? No more secrets please.

Love is all around us…

And so the feeling goes….away. The public spats between the First Minister and Deputy First Minister of Northern Ireland/this wee country/region/province/failed statelet/occupied Ireland/here (delete as appropriate) seem to becoming infectious.

In the Health Committee on Thursday, Iris Robinson forgot she was no longer the Chair and ended up having ‘a robust discussion’ with Deputy Chair Michelle O’Neill of Sinn Fein, who was chairing proceedings in the absence of the new Chair Jim Wells. At least John McCallister can have a rest from the ‘robust discussions’ he and Iris used to have.

White van riot

THE idiots want to take over the asylum. More pointless wrecking and rioting have once again taken place in Lurgan. White vans burnt out, drivers left in terror, masked gunmen compensating for a lack in the trouser department by waving phallic weapons in the air and acting all macho.

Revolutionaries? Republican freedom fighters? Dedicated guerrilla soldiers? Or just plain idiots?

After careful consideration of the options…yep plain, stupid, ignorant idiots. And that’s a more sophisticated political analysis than they will ever come up with.

Libya and irony…important lessons

PARIAH states sometimes become good mates. This is a fact of international diplomacy that seems to fly in the face of logic, reason or even the ability of a reporter to understand.

Libya is likely to be a case study for future studies of the paranormal in politics.

To recap: Libya once was a ‘bad country’; Libya stood accused of being behind the Lockerbie plane bombing; Libya pays compensation to victims of Lockerbie; Libyan man convicted of said bombing released from jail in Scotland because he was dying; Prime Minister accused of dodgy deals on release of bomber; victims groups in Northern Ireland want compensation over Libya arming IRA in the 80s; and UK and US oil companies vying for contracts in the north African state.

And now, to complete the ever winding moral maze of relationships it emerges that PSNI officers have been helping training Libyan police officers in the UK and Libya.

Cue unionist politicians’ outrage and disbelief…which underscores the irony of not having policing and justice devolved. Had these powers been devolved, a Northern Ireland Executive Minister would, at the very least, have been informed of the location of deployed officers seconded to the National Police Improvement Agency.

Irony point number one: Libya which used to back paramilitaries who killed Northern Ireland police officers now has its police force being trained by Northern Ireland police officers.

Irony point number two: Sinn Féin, who used to care about such things don’t even raise an eyebrow at these conundrums.

Irony point number three: Nobody outside Northern Ireland cares about any of this, and no-one in the United Nations will notice.

There is more to life than government spending – and devolution

The Government spin doctors will be pleased with how the Budget was reported in Northern Ireland. A number of Executive Ministers rushed to welcome aspects of the Budget – particularly extra Government spending that will apply to Northern Ireland. In many ways the response brought home the limitations of both devolution but more notably the parochial perspective of the media here.

The Budget’s ‘extra £21m’ for Northern Ireland was trumpeted by the media – doubtless working off a Treasury press release. I failed to find anything other than a passing mention of the fact that corporation tax on small businesses is going up from 20 to 21%. Given that Northern Ireland has a disproportionate reliance on small business and is apparently seeking to build the private sector here this was a curious oversight – particularly by a media that has given acres of coverage to a simplistic campaign to lower the ‘headline’ rate of Corporation Tax (the one paid by large businesses like those who own papers, radio and TV stations) in NI.

No mention, as far as we could see, either of the abolition of the 10% income tax rate – which given our lower pay rates will have a disproportionate impact here. These measures alone coupled with the increases in tax on fuel and vehicle excise duty – Northern Ireland has a disproportionate reliance on heating oil and the car - will far outweigh any gains for NI.
Given the state of economy, however, the general opinion is that there was little else Mr Darling could do.

This week on the Hill

While there were political rows in the media about the number of councils and the Maze stadium, proceeds in the House were fairly restrained. The debate on the Eames/Bradley Consultative Group on the Past tabled by David Burnside enabled him to get a lot of things of this chest about Ian Paisley but did not greatly add to the sum of human knowledge.

Likewise, the debate on the Report of the Assembly Review Committee into the devolution of policing and justice didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know. Yes, the parties have made considerable progress on agreeing the mechanics of how it would work but no there was no progress on deciding when it would happen.

Perhaps the most telling remark came from Gerry Adams. In response to considerable provocation from the DUP about how they would block any transfer of policing and justice powers for the foreseeable future, Adams threatened to retaliate by blocking….any idea of a new stadium at Blanchflower Park. Mr Adams has been upping his profile again in recent weeks but as a gesture it revealed more about how Sinn Féin are tied into the process than anything else.

Re-shaping health

Does anyone know what the future shape of health and social care in Northern Ireland will be? Well, we hope the minister does, but we're not really sure. The department is heading out to consult on the new plans, but on Friday the people in the private and voluntary sector will have a chance to hear from leading commentators on the proposed new arrangements on commissioning and local involvement. To find out more email Simon.