Friday 22 August 2008

Euro Election candidates

Political anoraks are beginning to think about the European elections. The SDLP lost its seat last time and would dearly love to win one of the three seats on offer on 4 June 2009. The suggestion that they might be considering running party stalwart Alban Maginnis seems to suggest that they do not really believe winning a seat is possible. Moreover, given that Maginnis is well qualified and often suggested as a possible Policing and Justice Minister, it would seem to migitate against such a candidacy. Or perhaps it suggests that the SDLP believe that the devolution of policing and justice is highly unlikely to happen this side of 4 June 2009?

Should Maginnis become Justice Minister (before or after the Euros and regardless of whether he is the SDLP candidate) few will have served a longer political apprenticeship.
The UUP/Conservatives appear to be lining up sitting MEP Jim Nicholson as their candidate - although there are also rumours of an alternative.

Jim Allister the former DUP member and sitting MEP is determined to run again. As well as attacking the DUP for going into government with Sinn Féin, he will attempt to paint any prospective DUP candidate as a ‘vote-splitter’.

The DUP certainly seem worried about Allister and his Traditional Unionist Vote party. Apparently, Sammy Wilson and Edwin Poots have turned down the idea of running – the later in no uncertain terms – when approached privately by their party leader. Arlene Foster has publicly said she has no wish to fight the election. Nigel Dodds and Jeffrey Donaldson have also been suggested and Dodds appear to be a serious possibility. He would, of course, have to stand down from Westminster if elected.

Alliance reaffirms its position on policing

The Alliance Party has again said it will not take a proposed policing and justice ministry at Stormont. There had been speculation over the weekend that the party may reverse a decision not to take the job and that the DUP was preparing to enter into talks with Alliance about this.

Ian Paisley Junior hasn’t gone away you know

Ian Paisley Junior seized the opportunity, as a member of the Policing Board, to respond to the attacks on police officers, by apparently saying that sooner or later a police officer would be murdered "unless the police are able to deploy ruthlessness in tracking down and wiping out these dissident members." He added that “if dissidents are shot on sight, the community will accept that it is a necessary use of lethal force to prevent dissident republicanism from growing”.

Some regarded these remarks as inflammatory but in reality the remarks and the reaction are overdone. The only way that dissidents could be ‘shot on sight’ is if they were confronted during an attack on police officers. In that situation, most people would probably agree that the police have the right to open fire. Ian Junior managed to create a headline and get an over-reaction – he must have been delighted.

Ian Paisley Junior hasn’t gone away you know

Ian Paisley Junior seized the opportunity, as a member of the Policing Board, to respond to the attacks on police officers, by apparently saying that sooner or later a police officer would be murdered "unless the police are able to deploy ruthlessness in tracking down and wiping out these dissident members." He added that “if dissidents are shot on sight, the community will accept that it is a necessary use of lethal force to prevent dissident republicanism from growing”.

Some regarded these remarks as inflammatory but in reality the remarks and the reaction are overdone. The only way that dissidents could be ‘shot on sight’ is if they were confronted during an attack on police officers. In that situation, most people would probably agree that the police have the right to open fire. Ian Junior managed to create a headline and get an over-reaction – he must have been delighted.

Semtex discovery sparks unease

The revelation that last week’s ‘dissident’ republican attack on police officers in Fermanagh involved the plastic explosive, semtex, certainly alarmed some people in Northern Ireland. To date, dissident attacks have largely been ambushes involved guns and a few bombs – such as the one under a police officer’s car in Co. Tyrone several months ago. This was, however, the first time that there has been official recognition that commercial explosives are in the hands of ‘dissidents’.

Hundreds of tonnes of semtex were exported to Libya between 1975 and 1981 by the manufacturers in what is now the Czech Republic. Some of this ended up in the hands of groups such as the Provisional IRA during the mid and late 1980s. The explosive has a shelf life of about 20 years so the important question is whether this is an old or new product – the police appear to believe it is old. That begs the question – given that PIRA has decommissioned – how did it come into the ‘dissidents’ possession?

Empey outlines his vision

Having been pleasantly surprised by the media and public reaction to the announcement that the Ulster Unionists were in talks with the Conservatives about a possible merger, Sir Reg Empey, the Ulster Unionist Leader has started to sell the idea with two opinion pieces – one in the News Letter and one in the Belfast Telegraph. Apparently there has been little dissent amongst UUP members about the idea but confusion still reins amongst the Democratic Unionists.

Some of their MLAs have rushed to attack the Tories and the UUP. Interestingly, however, their MPs have not said a word in recent weeks. Nigel Dodds had originally said that the likely outcome of the next General Election was a ‘hung’ Parliament. Perhaps they have had time to read up on the more recent opinion poll evidence and that might explain the silence of the MPs.