There is a well known joke that our local politicians have been negotiating for so long that if you offered them a cup of coffee, their retort would be: “Well let’s just look at the options without committing just yet”. Sinn Féin are the most notorious for constantly negotiating. However, one gets the feeling that if you offered any of our local parties a straight forward, honest deal that benefited them, they would be unable to overcome the fears and suspicious bred by our troubled political history and the constant deal-making.
Meanwhile, the DUP and Sinn Féin continue to haggle over the ‘choreography’ or presentation and ‘sequencing’ or timetable of a deal relating to the devolution of policing and justice. Like all the other deals down the years, this deal will not be about one issue and it will be a case of “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”.
This week, First Minister Peter Robinson apparently indicated that the DUP would not accept a Sinn Féin Justice and Policing Minister but would accept a SDLP or Alliance Minister. He also apparently signaled a willingness to see this happen sometime in the next 12 months.
Like all politicians, Robinson’s thoughts are focused on elections. So when he says sometime in the next 12 months he probably means sometime next June, after the European election. Unfortunately for the DUP, the European election is the one type of election in which one strong personality can score disproportionately well – as Northern Ireland has only one European Parliamentary constituency. Ian Paisley, of course, built his political success on the back of the European election as his former Director of Elections, Peter Robinson, will be only to aware.
Will a commitment to a SDLP or Alliance Minister for next June be enough for Sinn Féin or more accurately will this be enough to keep the DUP’s support base happy?
Friday, 4 July 2008
Devil still in the detail
There is a well known joke that our local politicians have been negotiating for so long that if you offered them a cup of coffee, their retort would be: “Well let’s just look at the options without committing just yet”. Sinn Féin are the most notorious for constantly negotiating. However, one gets the feeling that if you offered any of our local parties a straight forward, honest deal that benefited them, they would be unable to overcome the fears and suspicious bred by our troubled political history and the constant deal-making.
Meanwhile, the DUP and Sinn Féin continue to haggle over the ‘choreography’ or presentation and ‘sequencing’ or timetable of a deal relating to the devolution of policing and justice. Like all the other deals down the years, this deal will not be about one issue and it will be a case of “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”.
This week, First Minister Peter Robinson apparently indicated that the DUP would not accept a Sinn Féin Justice and Policing Minister but would accept a SDLP or Alliance Minister. He also apparently signaled a willingness to see this happen sometime in the next 12 months.
Like all politicians, Robinson’s thoughts are focused on elections. So when he says sometime in the next 12 months he probably means sometime next June, after the European election. Unfortunately for the DUP, the European election is the one type of election in which one strong personality can score disproportionately well – as Northern Ireland has only one European Parliamentary constituency. Ian Paisley, of course, built his political success on the back of the European election as his former Director of Elections, Peter Robinson, will be only to aware.
Will a commitment to a SDLP or Alliance Minister for next June be enough for Sinn Féin or more accurately will this be enough to keep the DUP’s support base happy?
Meanwhile, the DUP and Sinn Féin continue to haggle over the ‘choreography’ or presentation and ‘sequencing’ or timetable of a deal relating to the devolution of policing and justice. Like all the other deals down the years, this deal will not be about one issue and it will be a case of “nothing is agreed until everything is agreed”.
This week, First Minister Peter Robinson apparently indicated that the DUP would not accept a Sinn Féin Justice and Policing Minister but would accept a SDLP or Alliance Minister. He also apparently signaled a willingness to see this happen sometime in the next 12 months.
Like all politicians, Robinson’s thoughts are focused on elections. So when he says sometime in the next 12 months he probably means sometime next June, after the European election. Unfortunately for the DUP, the European election is the one type of election in which one strong personality can score disproportionately well – as Northern Ireland has only one European Parliamentary constituency. Ian Paisley, of course, built his political success on the back of the European election as his former Director of Elections, Peter Robinson, will be only to aware.
Will a commitment to a SDLP or Alliance Minister for next June be enough for Sinn Féin or more accurately will this be enough to keep the DUP’s support base happy?
Sinn Féin experiences ‘local difficulty’ in Fermanagh
That Sinn Féin Fermanagh Councillor Bernice Swift was unhappy with the direction her party was going, particularly with regard to policing, was well known. She was already suspended from the party. However, her decision to resign as a councilor is a blow to Sinn Féin.
The loss of a councillor in any other part of Northern Ireland would be inconvenient for the party but Swift’s resignation in Fermanagh will be especially worrying for Sinn Féin. It has already lost one of its Assembly Members with the resignation of Gerry McHugh resigned and party will be increasingly concerned at the probability of an electoral challenge to their sitting MP Michelle Gildernew.
Sinn Féin has withstood electoral challenges from Republican dissenters before. However, with Arlene Foster, the DUP Minister, continuing to develop a higher and higher profile, Sinn Féin will be worried that a spilt Republican vote will hand this ultra marginal seat to the Democratic Unionists.
Losing this seat in a possible 2010 General Election, having probably lost their Dublin MEP, Mary Lou McDonald, to boundary changes in 2009, would be very bad PR.
The loss of a councillor in any other part of Northern Ireland would be inconvenient for the party but Swift’s resignation in Fermanagh will be especially worrying for Sinn Féin. It has already lost one of its Assembly Members with the resignation of Gerry McHugh resigned and party will be increasingly concerned at the probability of an electoral challenge to their sitting MP Michelle Gildernew.
Sinn Féin has withstood electoral challenges from Republican dissenters before. However, with Arlene Foster, the DUP Minister, continuing to develop a higher and higher profile, Sinn Féin will be worried that a spilt Republican vote will hand this ultra marginal seat to the Democratic Unionists.
Losing this seat in a possible 2010 General Election, having probably lost their Dublin MEP, Mary Lou McDonald, to boundary changes in 2009, would be very bad PR.
Dublin hangover
Everyone knew that the economic boom in the Republic had to come to an end but the severity has taken many be surprise. The Republic’s economy is expected to contract by 0.4% next year and apparently 20,000 people will have to emigrate, if the unemployment rate is to remain under 8%.
The economy in the Republic has made huge strides in the past decade but the property bubble had to burst and it is going to hurt. Ironically, if the Republic had not been in the Euro, it might have been better placed to tame housing demand and spiraling house prices.
The economy in the Republic has made huge strides in the past decade but the property bubble had to burst and it is going to hurt. Ironically, if the Republic had not been in the Euro, it might have been better placed to tame housing demand and spiraling house prices.
Belfast Tiger?
Meanwhile, Belfast’s economy apparently grew fastest among 30 of the largest UK cities over the past 10 years. A report by accounting firm UHY Hacker Young said Belfast has experienced a 99% increase in gross added value over the past decade. Belfast came in third place in the league table of Britain’s strongest economies behind Edinburgh and London.
One fears that much of this growth is driven by over inflated house prices and excessive government spending.
The chairman of the accountancy firm claimed that Belfast’s ability to capitalise on the growing trends in the service and knowledge economy had been in part responsible for its economic success.
One fears that much of this growth is driven by over inflated house prices and excessive government spending.
The chairman of the accountancy firm claimed that Belfast’s ability to capitalise on the growing trends in the service and knowledge economy had been in part responsible for its economic success.
Cowen plays down SDLP/Fianna Fail merger speculation
The Taoiseach and the Leader of Fianna Fail, Brian Cowen, has moved to dampen speculation about a possible merger between his party and the SDLP in Northern Ireland. Could it be that the SDLP and FF are beginning to realise that while the leadership of the SDLP is overwhelmingly FF inclined, their electoral support would be heavily spilt across Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Irish Labour movement? Indeed, given that less than half of SDLP supporters have told opinion polls repeatedly that they support a united Ireland, it is possible that any move to join with parties in the south might drive some of their supporters into the hands of the Alliance party.
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