Are we all finally tiring of the big set-piece photo opportunities? Have there simply been too many US Presidential visits, too many Prime Ministerial summits and too many grimacing photo calls by Party Leaders? Judging from the low key response to visit by US President Bush and First Lady Laura Bush it appears the media and the public have become bored with such events.
There was an attempt to create a fuss about Caitriona Ruane’s absence from a school visit by the President but no one really seemed that bothered. Similarly attempts to draw attention to the fact that Martin McGuinness was ‘glad-handing’ President Bush at Stormont while other Sinn Féin MLAs were verbally attacking the President’s foreign policy record failed to ignite much interest.
Friday, 20 June 2008
European confusion
The media North and South and further afield spent a lot of time debating the consequences of the No vote in the Irish Republic on the Lisbon Treaty. It is very unclear how the situation can be resolved. Most European governments and the Commission seem determined to press on. Should they fail to make radical alterations to the Treaty I have a hunch that any ‘Repeat Referendum’ could produce a massive No vote from an irritated electorate.
Could Stuart Wheeler’s court action in London save the day? This story will run and run.
Could Stuart Wheeler’s court action in London save the day? This story will run and run.
Peter Robinson in Narnia
Many of our politicians seem on occasion to inhabit their own personal land of make believe. A world were all ills are cured by asking the Fairy Government for more money even if on occasions you have to travel to a far away land to a Palace called Westminster and walk through a special room called the ‘Division Lobby’ in order to make your wish. In this land ‘deals’ are never made but wishes really do come true – just wait and see.
The DUP, who visited this magical kingdom recently have heard stories that the Palace may be taken over in a couple of years by someone else but they have decided to keep believing in their Fairy Godmother Gordon.
The new First Minster strained all day on Monday not to smile when in the vicinity of the Deputy First Minister. Later in the week he couldn’t contain himself any more. He was photographed with babe in arms in front of a mural in honour of C S Lewis the creator of Narnia beaming from ear to ear.
The fact that the mural displaced one in honour of paramilitaries is surely a sign of progress. Hopefully the child in Robinson’s arms will one day wonder at the crazy idea that anyone would put up pictures in memory of the perpetrators of violence.
The DUP, who visited this magical kingdom recently have heard stories that the Palace may be taken over in a couple of years by someone else but they have decided to keep believing in their Fairy Godmother Gordon.
The new First Minster strained all day on Monday not to smile when in the vicinity of the Deputy First Minister. Later in the week he couldn’t contain himself any more. He was photographed with babe in arms in front of a mural in honour of C S Lewis the creator of Narnia beaming from ear to ear.
The fact that the mural displaced one in honour of paramilitaries is surely a sign of progress. Hopefully the child in Robinson’s arms will one day wonder at the crazy idea that anyone would put up pictures in memory of the perpetrators of violence.
Irish Language ‘row’
The News Letter, which seems to wish to focus more and more on an exclusively Ulster Protestant/Loyalist readership, worked itself into a lather about the fact that Gordon Brown had agreed to give £6milion to the Irish Language Broadcast Fund. The newspaper’s headline said that there was ‘Fury’ at the announcement.
According to the News Letter, Ulster Unionist peer Lord Laird ‘blasted news of the pledge as “disgusting and despicable”.’ There is little evidence that the vast bulk of the population took any notice at all of the announcement. Nelson McCausland – who is not adverse to the odd provocative sound bite, seemed remarkably relaxed describing it as a ‘fig-leaf’ for Sinn Féin in light of their failure to deliver an Irish Language Act.
One thing is for sure, it has further politicised the issue of the Irish language – if that was possible. The £6 million was given at Sinn Féin’s request so voters are invited to draw the conclusion that if you want to advance the Irish language agenda you should vote SF not SDLP or any other party. In reality, this approach puts off any possibility of movement on the issue.
It is worth noting that the Welsh Language Act of 1993 was introduced by the Conservatives and the issue has cross party support in Wales – it is hard to envisage that happening in Northern Ireland.
According to the News Letter, Ulster Unionist peer Lord Laird ‘blasted news of the pledge as “disgusting and despicable”.’ There is little evidence that the vast bulk of the population took any notice at all of the announcement. Nelson McCausland – who is not adverse to the odd provocative sound bite, seemed remarkably relaxed describing it as a ‘fig-leaf’ for Sinn Féin in light of their failure to deliver an Irish Language Act.
One thing is for sure, it has further politicised the issue of the Irish language – if that was possible. The £6 million was given at Sinn Féin’s request so voters are invited to draw the conclusion that if you want to advance the Irish language agenda you should vote SF not SDLP or any other party. In reality, this approach puts off any possibility of movement on the issue.
It is worth noting that the Welsh Language Act of 1993 was introduced by the Conservatives and the issue has cross party support in Wales – it is hard to envisage that happening in Northern Ireland.
Titanic problems
This week say the unveiling of a proposal to build a hotel reflecting the glories of the famous liner the Titanic. It is proposed as a signature project in the Titanic Quarter in Belfast’s former shipyard area. The previous proposal hit the rocks because no one would cough up the huge sums of public money it required. This project may have a better chance of plain sailing as it appears to have much more private sector backing. The design – reminiscent of a ship - is certainly striking.
Friday, 13 June 2008
The mother of all side deals?
It will be the not knowing the detail of the deal that really irks Sinn Féin.
Gordon Brown effectively hyped the 42 day detention vote into a vote of confidence in all but name. However, when it looked like he was facing defeat the Labour government folded and cut a deal with the DUP. There is hardly anyone who believes the protestations of DUP MPs and the Labour government that there is no deal.
No one outside the DUP leadership knows the detail of the deal and that may have implications for the political process in Northern Ireland. There is much speculation about the contents. Given that Gordon Brown was staring political death in the face, there can be no real limit to the possible extent of this deal.
There is much mention of £200m to avoid having to introduce water charging two months before the European elections and talk of as much as £1bn from the sale of former military sites being returned to the NI Executive. Talk too of a promise not to extend abortion to Northern Ireland and of a peerage for Ian Paisley.
But what of the policing and justice. Will we ever hear Shaun Woodward call for it to be devolved as soon as possible ever again? And if we do, will he mean it or will he be going through the motions? Will Labour push an Irish Language Act through Westminster? Guarantees of ‘non interference’ on these two issues were surely at the top of the DUP shopping list.
Sinn Féin may never know what was agreed to in this ‘side deal’ and this will only add to the frustration that voiced itself in their threat to bring down Stormont last week. Now, having made that threat, Sinn Féin find themselves with limited options. Using the tactic again without following through would lead to a ‘cry wolf’ scenario. Moreover there is no evidence that calling an election would undermine the DUP and even if it did this would only increase the possibility of devolution collapsing altogether. Does anyone believe that Gordon Brown would opt for Plan ‘B’ in such a scenario? He would more than likely simply put the whole thing in the political deep freeze – reintroducing direct rule and challenging the local parties to sort out their differences.
Ironically, Sinn Féin may actually benefit from the DUP vote of course, if the Brown government announces that, after consideration, it is to ‘financially alleviate’ the burden of the introduction of a water and sewerage element to rates bills in Northern Ireland. Both Sinn Féin and the DUP are not keen on going into the European elections less than two months after pushing up everyone’s rates bills.
The Conservative Party, meanwhile, is extremely unhappy. David Davis, who in the past might have been friendly with the DUP, has decided to make a personal crusade over the whole 42 day issue by resigning his seat at Westminster and fighting the subsequent by-election – which will probably be on 11 July. The by election is likely to cause further discomfort to the Conservative Party. This will only increase their irritation with the DUP.
The DUP Parliamentary group was apparently spilt down the middle – with half of them anxious not to offend Cameron and the Conservatives. Having made their choice, they might have maximised their short term influence at the expense of the medium and long term.
Some feel this shows how unionists can ‘maximise’ their ‘influence’ at Westminster by maximising the number of unionist MPs. Others might argue that it leads to unionists being distrusted and despised by both the main parties. Certainly the standing of unionist MPs (Lady Sylvia Hermon also supported the government) has properly never been lower in the Conservative Party.
Gordon Brown effectively hyped the 42 day detention vote into a vote of confidence in all but name. However, when it looked like he was facing defeat the Labour government folded and cut a deal with the DUP. There is hardly anyone who believes the protestations of DUP MPs and the Labour government that there is no deal.
No one outside the DUP leadership knows the detail of the deal and that may have implications for the political process in Northern Ireland. There is much speculation about the contents. Given that Gordon Brown was staring political death in the face, there can be no real limit to the possible extent of this deal.
There is much mention of £200m to avoid having to introduce water charging two months before the European elections and talk of as much as £1bn from the sale of former military sites being returned to the NI Executive. Talk too of a promise not to extend abortion to Northern Ireland and of a peerage for Ian Paisley.
But what of the policing and justice. Will we ever hear Shaun Woodward call for it to be devolved as soon as possible ever again? And if we do, will he mean it or will he be going through the motions? Will Labour push an Irish Language Act through Westminster? Guarantees of ‘non interference’ on these two issues were surely at the top of the DUP shopping list.
Sinn Féin may never know what was agreed to in this ‘side deal’ and this will only add to the frustration that voiced itself in their threat to bring down Stormont last week. Now, having made that threat, Sinn Féin find themselves with limited options. Using the tactic again without following through would lead to a ‘cry wolf’ scenario. Moreover there is no evidence that calling an election would undermine the DUP and even if it did this would only increase the possibility of devolution collapsing altogether. Does anyone believe that Gordon Brown would opt for Plan ‘B’ in such a scenario? He would more than likely simply put the whole thing in the political deep freeze – reintroducing direct rule and challenging the local parties to sort out their differences.
Ironically, Sinn Féin may actually benefit from the DUP vote of course, if the Brown government announces that, after consideration, it is to ‘financially alleviate’ the burden of the introduction of a water and sewerage element to rates bills in Northern Ireland. Both Sinn Féin and the DUP are not keen on going into the European elections less than two months after pushing up everyone’s rates bills.
The Conservative Party, meanwhile, is extremely unhappy. David Davis, who in the past might have been friendly with the DUP, has decided to make a personal crusade over the whole 42 day issue by resigning his seat at Westminster and fighting the subsequent by-election – which will probably be on 11 July. The by election is likely to cause further discomfort to the Conservative Party. This will only increase their irritation with the DUP.
The DUP Parliamentary group was apparently spilt down the middle – with half of them anxious not to offend Cameron and the Conservatives. Having made their choice, they might have maximised their short term influence at the expense of the medium and long term.
Some feel this shows how unionists can ‘maximise’ their ‘influence’ at Westminster by maximising the number of unionist MPs. Others might argue that it leads to unionists being distrusted and despised by both the main parties. Certainly the standing of unionist MPs (Lady Sylvia Hermon also supported the government) has properly never been lower in the Conservative Party.
Iris Robinson in ‘homophobic’ row
The wife of the new First Minister started a row by some remarks she made on a radio programme about homosexuality. It somewhat deflected attention from the announcement of the DUP’s new Ministers. Thankfully for her the row was then overshadowed by the debacle over the vote in the House of Commons about the government proposal for the 42 day detention of terrorist suspects.
Republic votes no
The Irish Republic has voted to reject the Lisbon Treaty. The implications are unclear. Sinn Féin was part of the No Campaign while Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, the Progressive Democrats and Labour were all in favour of the Treaty. Sinn Féin will undoubtedly have used the campaign to maintain and possibly build their electoral machine. However, the limelight appears to have been stolen by Declan Ganley and his Libertas campaign group. It seems unlikely, therefore, that Sinn Féin will gain much kudos with the electorate from their involvement on the winning side. The next opinion polls south of the border will be awaited with interest.
DUP Resuffle
The following changes have been made to the DUP Assembly Committee Chairmen and Vice-Chairmen following the Ministerial reshuffle:
Social Development Committee: David Simpson will replace Gregory Campbell as Chairman of the Social Development Committee.
Education Committee: North Antrim MLA Mervyn Storey will replace Sammy Wilson as Chairman of the Education Committee.
Employment and Learning Committee: East Belfast MLA Robin Newton will replace Jimmy Spratt as Vice-Chairman of the Employment & Learning Committee.
Finance and Personnel : Strangford MLA Simon Hamilton will replace Mervyn Storey as Vice-Chairman of the Finance and Personnel Committee.
Policing Board: David Simpson will also be stepping down as a member of the Policing Board therefore South Belfast MLA Jimmy Spratt will take up this position and will serve alongside the DUP’s current Board members Peter Weir MLA, Ian Paisley Jnr MLA and Thomas Buchannan MLA.
Social Development Committee: David Simpson will replace Gregory Campbell as Chairman of the Social Development Committee.
Education Committee: North Antrim MLA Mervyn Storey will replace Sammy Wilson as Chairman of the Education Committee.
Employment and Learning Committee: East Belfast MLA Robin Newton will replace Jimmy Spratt as Vice-Chairman of the Employment & Learning Committee.
Finance and Personnel : Strangford MLA Simon Hamilton will replace Mervyn Storey as Vice-Chairman of the Finance and Personnel Committee.
Policing Board: David Simpson will also be stepping down as a member of the Policing Board therefore South Belfast MLA Jimmy Spratt will take up this position and will serve alongside the DUP’s current Board members Peter Weir MLA, Ian Paisley Jnr MLA and Thomas Buchannan MLA.
Friday, 6 June 2008
The week that never was..
Anyone who pays too much attention to the media would have thought there was a political crisis developing during the last week as word spread that Sinn Fein was considering refusing to nominate Peter Robinson to the position of First Minister following Ian Paisley’s resignation. In reality it all turned out to be a false alarm but it allowed politicians and journalists to lapse back into the old days of endless speculation, perpetual crisis and talks about talks.
In the end Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness were nominated for First Minister and deputy First Minister with reasonably good humour all round. Sir Reg Empey, the UUP Leader, tried to rain on the parade by pointing out the ludicrous nature of the situation but probably struck the wrong note because while the public may well sympathise with this analysis the ‘man in the street’ probably wants continuity and stability before anything else – no matter how ludicrous.
The debate has raged all week about the advisability of Sinn Fein’s tactic. While they had grumbled in private they had not made public this unhappiness. They then let it be known through ‘SF sources’ they were unhappy and eventually the party confirmed that it was considering its position on the nomination process.
Some commentators such as Newton Emerson in the Irish News lambasted Sinn Fein, many others debated who had most to loss or gain from an election. Speculation was heaped on speculation.
Malachi O’Doherty in the Belfast Telegraph felt that while the tactic showed that Sinn Fein could not be taken for granted, he believed that an election would not be popular amongst SF voters beyond the ‘core’ or ‘base’ of ardent supporters. Senior UUP sources tended to concur that the tactic – threatening an election but not actually causing one would reassure many Sinn Fein supporters.
In truth it probably, ironically, reassured many DUP supporters of the correctness of their party’s position.
Both parties remain nervous – SF face losing their MEP in Dublin next year and Michelle Gildernew, the MP for Fermanagh South Tyrone, must be concerned about her position at the next General Election, given the level of discontent amongst Republicans in her constituency.
The DUP are concerned about the damage Jim Allister and the Traditional Unionist Voice could do to them in the European elections – ironically a constituency-based Assembly poll might have helped them stop Jim Allister’s progress. In next year’s European election, Northern Ireland is one constituency enabling Allister to put himself before the entire electorate in a way he couldn’t in an Assembly election.
Should the IRA Army Council disband prior to the European election – the reason Jim Allister gave for not backing power-sharing and resigning from the DUP – it is unclear whether he would run.
Part of the frantic coverage of events this week included the fact that Jeffrey Donaldson MP MLA had been appointed DUP Director of Elections. While the media focused on the possibility of Assembly elections it is also the case that if the DUP perform badly in next year’s European elections Jeffrey Donaldson may get the blame.
In the end Peter Robinson and Martin McGuinness were nominated for First Minister and deputy First Minister with reasonably good humour all round. Sir Reg Empey, the UUP Leader, tried to rain on the parade by pointing out the ludicrous nature of the situation but probably struck the wrong note because while the public may well sympathise with this analysis the ‘man in the street’ probably wants continuity and stability before anything else – no matter how ludicrous.
The debate has raged all week about the advisability of Sinn Fein’s tactic. While they had grumbled in private they had not made public this unhappiness. They then let it be known through ‘SF sources’ they were unhappy and eventually the party confirmed that it was considering its position on the nomination process.
Some commentators such as Newton Emerson in the Irish News lambasted Sinn Fein, many others debated who had most to loss or gain from an election. Speculation was heaped on speculation.
Malachi O’Doherty in the Belfast Telegraph felt that while the tactic showed that Sinn Fein could not be taken for granted, he believed that an election would not be popular amongst SF voters beyond the ‘core’ or ‘base’ of ardent supporters. Senior UUP sources tended to concur that the tactic – threatening an election but not actually causing one would reassure many Sinn Fein supporters.
In truth it probably, ironically, reassured many DUP supporters of the correctness of their party’s position.
Both parties remain nervous – SF face losing their MEP in Dublin next year and Michelle Gildernew, the MP for Fermanagh South Tyrone, must be concerned about her position at the next General Election, given the level of discontent amongst Republicans in her constituency.
The DUP are concerned about the damage Jim Allister and the Traditional Unionist Voice could do to them in the European elections – ironically a constituency-based Assembly poll might have helped them stop Jim Allister’s progress. In next year’s European election, Northern Ireland is one constituency enabling Allister to put himself before the entire electorate in a way he couldn’t in an Assembly election.
Should the IRA Army Council disband prior to the European election – the reason Jim Allister gave for not backing power-sharing and resigning from the DUP – it is unclear whether he would run.
Part of the frantic coverage of events this week included the fact that Jeffrey Donaldson MP MLA had been appointed DUP Director of Elections. While the media focused on the possibility of Assembly elections it is also the case that if the DUP perform badly in next year’s European elections Jeffrey Donaldson may get the blame.
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