Wednesday 10 June 2009

Isn't it ironic.....

It was ironic that as the ballot papers were counted in for the election race to Europe, it was Europe that summed it all up with its iconic 80’s song ‘The final countdown’. And what a final countdown it was too, with a surreal excitement appearing as the voting slips were being sifted and tallied to give a picture on the shape of Northern Ireland politics that few could have foreseen.

European polls used to be seen as a simple sectarian headcount, with the usual two unionist candidates elected, and the SDLP’s John Hume securing the nationalist seat.

Since 2004 the SDLP seat has become almost impossible to win for the party. Sinn Féin edged the SDLP out, and now we have, what had previously been entirely unforeseen, Sinn Féin topping the poll and elected on first count. Oh, how things have changed.

That they have lost their one European seat in the Republic of Ireland – previously held by Sinn Féin deputy leader, Mary Lou MacDonald – will be quickly skirted over by the party.

The reduction of seats in the Dublin Euro constituency from four to three always made it more difficult for MacDonald to hold on. However, whatever the reasons for the loss, Sinn Fein can no longer claim to have all-island European representation.

However, the battle royale between the three Unionist candidates has been the one most closely watched by the pundits.

Even when Ian Paisley Senior stepped aside, Jim Allister – then standing as the DUP candidate – was virtually guaranteed a seat in the European Parliament. This time, the party’s candidate Diane Dodds held onto that hitherto ‘safe’ DUP seat by her fingernails.

The collapse of the DUP vote can be attributed to many factors. The party was not untouched by the MPs’ expenses scandal despite the robust defence by Peter Robinson and Gregory Campbell on the airwaves. Also, whether Dodds was the right candidate will be subjected to an in-party post-mortem discussion. Her performance on the BBC’s Politics Show was criticised by pundits and slammed on reputable websites. But, was it more a case that no-one else in the party wanted to accept the poisoned chalice of running against Jim Allister?

Allister’s TUV ran a clear and competent campaign, albeit one focussed on negativity directed entirely at the DUP. Even though he lost his seat 70,000 votes is some showing and will be a jolt to the DUP. A jolt that will have DUP strategists scratching their heads in advance of Westminster and Stormont elections.

Strategists behind the Conservative/Ulster Unionist match-up will be a little more content at the showing of Jim Nicholson. While he was 6,000 first preference votes short of Dodds total, it represents a credible first outing for a marriage that had a rocky start. Whether Nicholson has benefited from the Conservative bounce on the back of Labour’s election woes or not, it will be seen by the Cameron-ites of the UUP as justification for moving forward with the tentative alliance.

But when the dust has settled on the election results, and the pundits pore over the ramifications for future elections the fact remains that we have three MEPs.

In the new dynamic of an extended European Union, the voice of Northern Ireland can no longer be guaranteed to be heard on key debates on the economy, agriculture, structural funding and other pressing matters.

European gravy tastes much better than Westminster gravy or Assembly fudge, but it will be up to our newly elected MEPs to prove that they deserve our continued electoral support.

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