Labour shaken by loss of Glasgow East to Scottish Nationalists

Long after Crewe and Nantwich is forgotten Glasgow East will be remembered. It could well be the election result that brings down Gordon Brown. Crewe and Nantwich was a safe Labour seat. Glasgow East was one of its strongest redoubts. This will spread panic throughout Labour MPs as they will virtually all fear losing their seats. The fact that this is a by election, and unlikely to repeated in a General Election, is a rational view that somehow gets lost when frightened MPs focus on the survival of their majority. Gordon Brown is lucky that Westminster is in Recess. This will help slow the spread of panic but is unlikely to stop the plotting. Changing their leader again is only likely to reduce their losses not prevent them losing the general election. Individual MPs may believe a new leader will give them enough ‘bounce’ in the opinion poll ratings to enable them to avoid defeat. Precisely who would volunteer to be leader in order to ‘reduce the losses’ at the next general election is unclear.

Conservatives and Ulster Unionists shock the commentariat

The media was taken aback when the Conservatives and Ulster Unionists revealed that they had been in secret talks about joining forces to ‘create a new electoral force’ in Northern Ireland with a view to bringing the region into ‘normal’ UK politics.

The other political parties in Northern Ireland were equally taken aback by the announcement. The DUP did not know whether to attack their rivals or not – possibly for fear of damaging their relations with the Conservatives even further. The DUP’s decision to support the government on the vote on 42 day detention vote, Iris Robinson’s remarks about homosexuality and the need for the government to uphold ‘God’s Laws’ have hugely damaged the party’s relations with the Conservatives.

Mr Cameron in particular shocked the ‘experts’ who appear to believe that he would be very pragmatic and ‘keep in’ with the DUP in case there is a hung Parliament. Others felt that Mr Cameron might be tempted simply to seek an alliance with the UUP under which any future Ulster Unionist MP would take the Conservative whip. However, in the event, Mr Cameron staked a flag in the ground in favour of a complete merger.

Iris Robinson remarks fuel controversy

Fuel was added to the fire of controversy caused by last week’s remarks by Iris Robinson, the MP and MLA for Strangford about homosexuals when the Belfast Telegraph unearthed a Hansard remark by Mrs Robinson in which she said homosexual was worse than child abuse. The wife of the First Minister then claimed that she had been misreported – apparently unaware that Hansard retains audio copies of all Westminster proceedings. Mrs Robinson then issued a statement which appeared to suggest that everyone would know that she did not mean what she said.

Mrs Robinson is currently on holiday with her husband.

Foster to stand for DUP in council by-election

Arlene Foster, the DUP MLA and Enterprise Minister, has been chosen as the DUP's candidate to contest the Fermanagh council by-election. Mrs Foster resigned from the same council a few months ago when she was the Environment Minister - a job whose remit includes local government. Now that she has no conflict of interest it appears she cannot bear to stay off the council. The UUP – having caused the by election by preventing a co-option – are now in a difficult position. If they stand Mrs Foster will certainly outpoll their candidate and they might spilt the unionist vote allowing Sinn Féin to take the seat.

Mrs Foster will be delighted to have the opportunity to raise her profile in one of the main towns in the Fermanagh and South Tyrone Westminster constituency. She is also expected to be the DUP’s candidate at the General Election when she will attempt to wrest the seat from her Ministerial colleague, Sinn Féin’s Michelle Gildernew.

Abortion row brewing

Virtually all of Northern Ireland’s politicians are united in their desire to prevent the region coming into line with GB on the issue of abortion. It is a subject that excites great passion and we could see a huge row at Westminster come the autumn. A group of backbench MPs – Labour and Conservative - have tabled an amendment to the Human Embryology and Fertilisation Bill that would change the law to bring NI in line with GB.

This Bill could have completed its Commons stages before the Recess and it is believed that Gordon Brown would have preferred that it had. However, apparently Harriet Harman ensured it didn’t and thus facilitated this amendment. Ironically, it could be used to Brown’s advantage. He could threaten to do nothing to prevent the passage of the amendment and say to the DUP and SF that if they want to prevent it becoming law all they need to do is to agree to devolved criminal justice matters by the autumn.

Obama cites Belfast as an example to the world

Speaking in Berlin, Senator Barack Obama, the democratic candidate in the US presidential election said that the walls in Belfast have come down. I feel another presidential visit coming on – if only to educate the Senator on the reality.

Iris Robinson – accident or design?

The highlight in what was a slow week for news was the row that erupted on Radio Ulster when Iris Robinson MP MLA, wife of the First Minister, decided to phone in and participate in a radio discussion on abortion. The Department of Health, Social Services and Public Safety issued guidance on the current legal position for Termination of Pregnancy for public consultation on Wednesday. As a Member of Parliament, Assembly Member and Chair of the Assembly’s Health Committee, which will participate in the consultation process in due course, some would have thought that Mrs Robinson would have ample opportunity to air her views on this subject without needing to phone into the Nolan Show – a radio show renowned for being controversial and provocative. In the midst of heated exchanges, Mrs Robinson said that “the government has a responsibility to uphold God’s laws morally.”

The comment provoked reaction both for and against her views. This is the second time within a number of weeks that remarks made by the Strangford MP have led to controversy. In June, Mrs Robinson described homosexuality as an “abomination” and suggested gay people could be “turned” heterosexual with psychiatric help.

Some may believe this is cunning ploy by the DUP to appeal to disaffected DUP voters who have deserted the party following the decision by Ian Paisley to enter a power-sharing government with Sinn Féin. The theory is that many of these voters share Mrs Robinson’s religious views and that the ‘hurt’ and ‘betrayal’ they feel over the power-sharing deal will be assuaged by her pronouncements on moral and religious issues.

It is more likely that Mrs Robinson passionately believes her opinions and was simply airing them. It is certainly unlikely to cause the DUP much electoral damage but it certainly undermines her husband’s strategy to broaden the DUP’s appeal.

Civic Forum to be revived?

There is speculation that the Civic Forum, which was suspended when the Executive collapsed in 2002, might be revived. It would be extraordinary if it was revived. Not just because the DUP have never been keen on the body but because in the intervening years most organisations who would wish to influence public policy – who might have seen the Forum as a useful avenue - have sooner or later decided to engage with the Assembly and the local political parties directly.

Given that the Assembly will always been the dominant influence, as a democratically elected institution charged with prioritising and deciding on policy and budgets, it is difficult to see many of these organisations devoting resources to the Civic Forum in the future.

The Civic Forum contained representatives of sectional interests and had no democratic legitimacy and in a place as small of Northern Ireland, it is hard to argue that its revival would add much to the decision making processes of the region.

Woodward warns he will get tough soon and warns of ‘vacuum’

The Secretary of State, Shaun Woodward has warned loyalist paramilitaries that they need to get a move on with decommissioning – at least that was the ‘spin’. The media reported that those who refused to give up their weapons risked being jailed after “the British government confirmed it is to scrap decommissioning legislation”. In fact the legislation does not run out until the February 2009 and the government was actually announcing it is going to renew the legislation for another year i.e. until February 2010. So loyalist paramilitaries can in fact comfortably hang on to their weapons for another year and a half.

Mr Woodward also said that the failure to devolve policing and justice was providing a window of opportunity for republican dissidents. One fails to see those who are involved in terrorist activity being swayed by this issue alone. They regard the whole power-sharing settlement as wrong and believe Sinn Féin are in the wrong. So even the sight of a Sinn Féin Policing and Justice Minister would be unlikely to persuade them to change their position.

Mr Woodward also said that completing devolution would aid the economy.

2p fuel duty postponed

The decision by Mr Woodward’s colleagues to abandon the planned 2p a litre increase in fuel duty will probably have more impact on Northern Ireland’s economy than anything loyalist paramiliarties ever do. Most commentators believe the announcement is an attempt to persuade voters in the Glasgow East constituency to stick with Labour in the by election on 24 July.

Until Labour contest (and win) an election in Northern Ireland there is no danger of the region’s voters in any constituency having such an impact on the Labour government.