Friday, 25 July 2008
Long after Crewe and Nantwich is forgotten Glasgow East will be remembered. It could well be the election result that brings down Gordon Brown. Crewe and Nantwich was a safe Labour seat. Glasgow East was one of its strongest redoubts. This will spread panic throughout Labour MPs as they will virtually all fear losing their seats. The fact that this is a by election, and unlikely to repeated in a General Election, is a rational view that somehow gets lost when frightened MPs focus on the survival of their majority. Gordon Brown is lucky that Westminster is in Recess. This will help slow the spread of panic but is unlikely to stop the plotting. Changing their leader again is only likely to reduce their losses not prevent them losing the general election. Individual MPs may believe a new leader will give them enough ‘bounce’ in the opinion poll ratings to enable them to avoid defeat. Precisely who would volunteer to be leader in order to ‘reduce the losses’ at the next general election is unclear.