That Sinn Féin Fermanagh Councillor Bernice Swift was unhappy with the direction her party was going, particularly with regard to policing, was well known. She was already suspended from the party. However, her decision to resign as a councilor is a blow to Sinn Féin.
The loss of a councillor in any other part of Northern Ireland would be inconvenient for the party but Swift’s resignation in Fermanagh will be especially worrying for Sinn Féin. It has already lost one of its Assembly Members with the resignation of Gerry McHugh resigned and party will be increasingly concerned at the probability of an electoral challenge to their sitting MP Michelle Gildernew.
Sinn Féin has withstood electoral challenges from Republican dissenters before. However, with Arlene Foster, the DUP Minister, continuing to develop a higher and higher profile, Sinn Féin will be worried that a spilt Republican vote will hand this ultra marginal seat to the Democratic Unionists.
Losing this seat in a possible 2010 General Election, having probably lost their Dublin MEP, Mary Lou McDonald, to boundary changes in 2009, would be very bad PR.
Friday, 4 July 2008
Dublin hangover
Everyone knew that the economic boom in the Republic had to come to an end but the severity has taken many be surprise. The Republic’s economy is expected to contract by 0.4% next year and apparently 20,000 people will have to emigrate, if the unemployment rate is to remain under 8%.
The economy in the Republic has made huge strides in the past decade but the property bubble had to burst and it is going to hurt. Ironically, if the Republic had not been in the Euro, it might have been better placed to tame housing demand and spiraling house prices.
The economy in the Republic has made huge strides in the past decade but the property bubble had to burst and it is going to hurt. Ironically, if the Republic had not been in the Euro, it might have been better placed to tame housing demand and spiraling house prices.
Belfast Tiger?
Meanwhile, Belfast’s economy apparently grew fastest among 30 of the largest UK cities over the past 10 years. A report by accounting firm UHY Hacker Young said Belfast has experienced a 99% increase in gross added value over the past decade. Belfast came in third place in the league table of Britain’s strongest economies behind Edinburgh and London.
One fears that much of this growth is driven by over inflated house prices and excessive government spending.
The chairman of the accountancy firm claimed that Belfast’s ability to capitalise on the growing trends in the service and knowledge economy had been in part responsible for its economic success.
One fears that much of this growth is driven by over inflated house prices and excessive government spending.
The chairman of the accountancy firm claimed that Belfast’s ability to capitalise on the growing trends in the service and knowledge economy had been in part responsible for its economic success.
Cowen plays down SDLP/Fianna Fail merger speculation
The Taoiseach and the Leader of Fianna Fail, Brian Cowen, has moved to dampen speculation about a possible merger between his party and the SDLP in Northern Ireland. Could it be that the SDLP and FF are beginning to realise that while the leadership of the SDLP is overwhelmingly FF inclined, their electoral support would be heavily spilt across Fianna Fail, Fine Gael and the Irish Labour movement? Indeed, given that less than half of SDLP supporters have told opinion polls repeatedly that they support a united Ireland, it is possible that any move to join with parties in the south might drive some of their supporters into the hands of the Alliance party.
Friday, 20 June 2008
Bush visit fails to excite
Are we all finally tiring of the big set-piece photo opportunities? Have there simply been too many US Presidential visits, too many Prime Ministerial summits and too many grimacing photo calls by Party Leaders? Judging from the low key response to visit by US President Bush and First Lady Laura Bush it appears the media and the public have become bored with such events.
There was an attempt to create a fuss about Caitriona Ruane’s absence from a school visit by the President but no one really seemed that bothered. Similarly attempts to draw attention to the fact that Martin McGuinness was ‘glad-handing’ President Bush at Stormont while other Sinn Féin MLAs were verbally attacking the President’s foreign policy record failed to ignite much interest.
There was an attempt to create a fuss about Caitriona Ruane’s absence from a school visit by the President but no one really seemed that bothered. Similarly attempts to draw attention to the fact that Martin McGuinness was ‘glad-handing’ President Bush at Stormont while other Sinn Féin MLAs were verbally attacking the President’s foreign policy record failed to ignite much interest.
European confusion
The media North and South and further afield spent a lot of time debating the consequences of the No vote in the Irish Republic on the Lisbon Treaty. It is very unclear how the situation can be resolved. Most European governments and the Commission seem determined to press on. Should they fail to make radical alterations to the Treaty I have a hunch that any ‘Repeat Referendum’ could produce a massive No vote from an irritated electorate.
Could Stuart Wheeler’s court action in London save the day? This story will run and run.
Could Stuart Wheeler’s court action in London save the day? This story will run and run.
Peter Robinson in Narnia
Many of our politicians seem on occasion to inhabit their own personal land of make believe. A world were all ills are cured by asking the Fairy Government for more money even if on occasions you have to travel to a far away land to a Palace called Westminster and walk through a special room called the ‘Division Lobby’ in order to make your wish. In this land ‘deals’ are never made but wishes really do come true – just wait and see.
The DUP, who visited this magical kingdom recently have heard stories that the Palace may be taken over in a couple of years by someone else but they have decided to keep believing in their Fairy Godmother Gordon.
The new First Minster strained all day on Monday not to smile when in the vicinity of the Deputy First Minister. Later in the week he couldn’t contain himself any more. He was photographed with babe in arms in front of a mural in honour of C S Lewis the creator of Narnia beaming from ear to ear.
The fact that the mural displaced one in honour of paramilitaries is surely a sign of progress. Hopefully the child in Robinson’s arms will one day wonder at the crazy idea that anyone would put up pictures in memory of the perpetrators of violence.
The DUP, who visited this magical kingdom recently have heard stories that the Palace may be taken over in a couple of years by someone else but they have decided to keep believing in their Fairy Godmother Gordon.
The new First Minster strained all day on Monday not to smile when in the vicinity of the Deputy First Minister. Later in the week he couldn’t contain himself any more. He was photographed with babe in arms in front of a mural in honour of C S Lewis the creator of Narnia beaming from ear to ear.
The fact that the mural displaced one in honour of paramilitaries is surely a sign of progress. Hopefully the child in Robinson’s arms will one day wonder at the crazy idea that anyone would put up pictures in memory of the perpetrators of violence.
Irish Language ‘row’
The News Letter, which seems to wish to focus more and more on an exclusively Ulster Protestant/Loyalist readership, worked itself into a lather about the fact that Gordon Brown had agreed to give £6milion to the Irish Language Broadcast Fund. The newspaper’s headline said that there was ‘Fury’ at the announcement.
According to the News Letter, Ulster Unionist peer Lord Laird ‘blasted news of the pledge as “disgusting and despicable”.’ There is little evidence that the vast bulk of the population took any notice at all of the announcement. Nelson McCausland – who is not adverse to the odd provocative sound bite, seemed remarkably relaxed describing it as a ‘fig-leaf’ for Sinn Féin in light of their failure to deliver an Irish Language Act.
One thing is for sure, it has further politicised the issue of the Irish language – if that was possible. The £6 million was given at Sinn Féin’s request so voters are invited to draw the conclusion that if you want to advance the Irish language agenda you should vote SF not SDLP or any other party. In reality, this approach puts off any possibility of movement on the issue.
It is worth noting that the Welsh Language Act of 1993 was introduced by the Conservatives and the issue has cross party support in Wales – it is hard to envisage that happening in Northern Ireland.
According to the News Letter, Ulster Unionist peer Lord Laird ‘blasted news of the pledge as “disgusting and despicable”.’ There is little evidence that the vast bulk of the population took any notice at all of the announcement. Nelson McCausland – who is not adverse to the odd provocative sound bite, seemed remarkably relaxed describing it as a ‘fig-leaf’ for Sinn Féin in light of their failure to deliver an Irish Language Act.
One thing is for sure, it has further politicised the issue of the Irish language – if that was possible. The £6 million was given at Sinn Féin’s request so voters are invited to draw the conclusion that if you want to advance the Irish language agenda you should vote SF not SDLP or any other party. In reality, this approach puts off any possibility of movement on the issue.
It is worth noting that the Welsh Language Act of 1993 was introduced by the Conservatives and the issue has cross party support in Wales – it is hard to envisage that happening in Northern Ireland.
Titanic problems
This week say the unveiling of a proposal to build a hotel reflecting the glories of the famous liner the Titanic. It is proposed as a signature project in the Titanic Quarter in Belfast’s former shipyard area. The previous proposal hit the rocks because no one would cough up the huge sums of public money it required. This project may have a better chance of plain sailing as it appears to have much more private sector backing. The design – reminiscent of a ship - is certainly striking.
Friday, 13 June 2008
The mother of all side deals?
It will be the not knowing the detail of the deal that really irks Sinn Féin.
Gordon Brown effectively hyped the 42 day detention vote into a vote of confidence in all but name. However, when it looked like he was facing defeat the Labour government folded and cut a deal with the DUP. There is hardly anyone who believes the protestations of DUP MPs and the Labour government that there is no deal.
No one outside the DUP leadership knows the detail of the deal and that may have implications for the political process in Northern Ireland. There is much speculation about the contents. Given that Gordon Brown was staring political death in the face, there can be no real limit to the possible extent of this deal.
There is much mention of £200m to avoid having to introduce water charging two months before the European elections and talk of as much as £1bn from the sale of former military sites being returned to the NI Executive. Talk too of a promise not to extend abortion to Northern Ireland and of a peerage for Ian Paisley.
But what of the policing and justice. Will we ever hear Shaun Woodward call for it to be devolved as soon as possible ever again? And if we do, will he mean it or will he be going through the motions? Will Labour push an Irish Language Act through Westminster? Guarantees of ‘non interference’ on these two issues were surely at the top of the DUP shopping list.
Sinn Féin may never know what was agreed to in this ‘side deal’ and this will only add to the frustration that voiced itself in their threat to bring down Stormont last week. Now, having made that threat, Sinn Féin find themselves with limited options. Using the tactic again without following through would lead to a ‘cry wolf’ scenario. Moreover there is no evidence that calling an election would undermine the DUP and even if it did this would only increase the possibility of devolution collapsing altogether. Does anyone believe that Gordon Brown would opt for Plan ‘B’ in such a scenario? He would more than likely simply put the whole thing in the political deep freeze – reintroducing direct rule and challenging the local parties to sort out their differences.
Ironically, Sinn Féin may actually benefit from the DUP vote of course, if the Brown government announces that, after consideration, it is to ‘financially alleviate’ the burden of the introduction of a water and sewerage element to rates bills in Northern Ireland. Both Sinn Féin and the DUP are not keen on going into the European elections less than two months after pushing up everyone’s rates bills.
The Conservative Party, meanwhile, is extremely unhappy. David Davis, who in the past might have been friendly with the DUP, has decided to make a personal crusade over the whole 42 day issue by resigning his seat at Westminster and fighting the subsequent by-election – which will probably be on 11 July. The by election is likely to cause further discomfort to the Conservative Party. This will only increase their irritation with the DUP.
The DUP Parliamentary group was apparently spilt down the middle – with half of them anxious not to offend Cameron and the Conservatives. Having made their choice, they might have maximised their short term influence at the expense of the medium and long term.
Some feel this shows how unionists can ‘maximise’ their ‘influence’ at Westminster by maximising the number of unionist MPs. Others might argue that it leads to unionists being distrusted and despised by both the main parties. Certainly the standing of unionist MPs (Lady Sylvia Hermon also supported the government) has properly never been lower in the Conservative Party.
Gordon Brown effectively hyped the 42 day detention vote into a vote of confidence in all but name. However, when it looked like he was facing defeat the Labour government folded and cut a deal with the DUP. There is hardly anyone who believes the protestations of DUP MPs and the Labour government that there is no deal.
No one outside the DUP leadership knows the detail of the deal and that may have implications for the political process in Northern Ireland. There is much speculation about the contents. Given that Gordon Brown was staring political death in the face, there can be no real limit to the possible extent of this deal.
There is much mention of £200m to avoid having to introduce water charging two months before the European elections and talk of as much as £1bn from the sale of former military sites being returned to the NI Executive. Talk too of a promise not to extend abortion to Northern Ireland and of a peerage for Ian Paisley.
But what of the policing and justice. Will we ever hear Shaun Woodward call for it to be devolved as soon as possible ever again? And if we do, will he mean it or will he be going through the motions? Will Labour push an Irish Language Act through Westminster? Guarantees of ‘non interference’ on these two issues were surely at the top of the DUP shopping list.
Sinn Féin may never know what was agreed to in this ‘side deal’ and this will only add to the frustration that voiced itself in their threat to bring down Stormont last week. Now, having made that threat, Sinn Féin find themselves with limited options. Using the tactic again without following through would lead to a ‘cry wolf’ scenario. Moreover there is no evidence that calling an election would undermine the DUP and even if it did this would only increase the possibility of devolution collapsing altogether. Does anyone believe that Gordon Brown would opt for Plan ‘B’ in such a scenario? He would more than likely simply put the whole thing in the political deep freeze – reintroducing direct rule and challenging the local parties to sort out their differences.
Ironically, Sinn Féin may actually benefit from the DUP vote of course, if the Brown government announces that, after consideration, it is to ‘financially alleviate’ the burden of the introduction of a water and sewerage element to rates bills in Northern Ireland. Both Sinn Féin and the DUP are not keen on going into the European elections less than two months after pushing up everyone’s rates bills.
The Conservative Party, meanwhile, is extremely unhappy. David Davis, who in the past might have been friendly with the DUP, has decided to make a personal crusade over the whole 42 day issue by resigning his seat at Westminster and fighting the subsequent by-election – which will probably be on 11 July. The by election is likely to cause further discomfort to the Conservative Party. This will only increase their irritation with the DUP.
The DUP Parliamentary group was apparently spilt down the middle – with half of them anxious not to offend Cameron and the Conservatives. Having made their choice, they might have maximised their short term influence at the expense of the medium and long term.
Some feel this shows how unionists can ‘maximise’ their ‘influence’ at Westminster by maximising the number of unionist MPs. Others might argue that it leads to unionists being distrusted and despised by both the main parties. Certainly the standing of unionist MPs (Lady Sylvia Hermon also supported the government) has properly never been lower in the Conservative Party.
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