Fianna Fáil/SDLP back together

Last week we reported on a possible hitch in the developing Fianna Fáil/SDLP relationship – with FF considering extending its consultation period about a possible move into politics in the North. It seems that things are back on track with a romantic meal for the two parties – or rather a breakfast on Friday for 400. Outgoing Tiaoseach Bertie Ahern was guest of honour at the event, which was also attended by Minister for Foreign Affairs Dermot Ahern and other senior FF figures. The media reported that having gone this far Mark Durkan will now be expected to go all the way.

The gathering, which took place in Co. Louth between Newry and Dundalk, was a fund raiser for the SDLP – specifically for their councillors who were surcharged by the Local Government Auditor for willful misconduct. Despite the fact the event was held just over the border, the SDLP may have to declare all ‘profits’ to the Electoral Commission.

Education - no compromise, no solution

The UUP’s Basil McCrea has reignited the debate over academic selection by producing an internal Sinn Féin briefing paper allegedly shows that the party is hoping to undermine academic selection by introducing a new policy via ‘guidelines’ rather than producing a policy that would have Executive and Assembly backing. The Minister, Caitriona Ruane, clearly realises that she cannot remove academic selection via new legislation as she will be unable to get either Executive, Committee or Assembly approval to do so.

Bypassing the Assembly in such a way is bound to set a precedent. While one does not doubt Caitriona Ruane’s passionate commitment to her brief, her party must surely realise that to press forward in this fashion will create a crisis in the Assembly. Sinn Féin have in the past been quite apt in creating situations where unionists are seen to be ‘in the wrong’. However, this approach would not merely galvanise the supporters of academic selection but also those who would see this as driving a ‘coach and horses’ through the Assembly’s procedures for cross-community consensus.

Bluntly unionist politicians could take retaliatory action and the moral high ground. Employment and Learning Minister Sir Reg Empey has already threatened as much.

Fianna Fail/SDLP courtship in ‘lovers tiff’?

Fianna Fáil is considering extending its consultation period about a possible move into politics in Northern Ireland. Having essentially ‘asked the SDLP out’, and the SDLP having batted its collective eyelids, it seems that FF are sensing that the SDLP are having doubts. The truth is that the SDLP is a very loose collection of capitalists, socialists and others with very little uniting them beyond their broad nationalist outlook. Any move into another party is bound to be painful but might it be worth it if it leads to a rosier future together.

Reshuffle speculation

This morning the DUP's Assembly's party is to meet to annoint Peter Robinson as their party's leader and the Party Executive will ratify the decision next Thursday. Shortly after being elected he is to meet with Brian Cowen, who is also currently a Finance Minister. Robinson’s Deputy Leader is likely to be Nigel Dodds.

Nothing excites political anoraks more than a re-shuffle and the imminent accession of Peter Robinson to the position of First Minister will create a vacancy. Will the new FM opt for a single promotion of will he re-shuffle? Will Nigel Dodds move to Finance? Will Simon Hamilton become the Junior Minister? Will Jeffrey Donaldson move to DoE? Will Arlene Foster move to DETI? Will Edwin Poots be stood down to become the DUP Euro candidate next year? Will Nelson McCausland become Minister for Culture, Arts and Leisure? Or is that just Gerry Adams’ nightmare? Who knows?

Cowen elected

Last week Brian Cowen was crowned as the leader of Fianna Fail. The Party was overjoyed to find he was unopposed and avoided an election never mind a divisive contest. A recording emerged of the Tiaoseach-elect singing ‘The town I loved so well’ which proved he wasn’t as bad a singer as most but that he should probably stick to politics. There were numerous articles commenting on how Mr Cowen had been politically charmed – always moving on from a Department before it was hit by difficulties. Others claimed that Cowen wouldn’t devote much time to Northern Ireland but then why would he? The deal is done, the power-sharing Executive is in place so why would he, or Gordon Brown devote much attention to NI. One suspects they will both have more pressing economic problems to deal with closer to home.

Trimble signals impatience with UUP leaders?

Lord Trimble, the Conservative peer, has signaled his impatience with the current party set up in Northern Ireland and speculated that it might change. Lord Trimble, who even when he was UUP Leader, often spoke about the need to abandon the ‘nationalist framework of reference’ and move into the UK political mainstream, was writing for the Daily Telegraph.
In a wide ranging article to mark the anniversary of the Belfast Agreement Lord Trimble notes that there is more to politics than simply those things that are devolved and on the need to be involved in the political parties of the UK:
“there are those other issues which will not be devolved. Defence, foreign policy, taxation, public expenditure, the broad thrust of public and social policy are all the purview of Westminster, where all but two Northern Ireland MPs are double hatted as Assembly Members and many triple hatted as Ministers as well.
It may be interesting to see for how long the electors are content with largely absent representation - indeed to see for how much longer they remain content with a party structure that reflects an age which may now be ending.”
Does this reflect a frustration with Sir Reg Empey and the other leaders of the UUP? Does Trimble think they should be leading the UUP into a merger with his new party, the Conservatives? Or does he think that were he has jumped others should follow?

Ahern jumps

Two weeks ago we mused that: “Bertie and Ian might both have time to wander round the site of the Battle of the Boyne together come the summer.” The decision of Bertie Ahern to resign as Tiaoseach did, nevertheless, come as surprise. There was a sense that while he was on a slippery slope that he would see things through until the Summer Recess.
There was certainly surprise and a degree of confusion, at least in Northern Ireland, as to why he has chosen 6 May as the date for his resignation to take effect. This enables him to bask in the glory of addressing the Joint Houses of the United States Congress on 30 April but why has he denied himself the backslapping media limelight of the Investment Conference on 7 and 8 May in Belfast?
Given that most people seem to consider the Belfast Agreement to be his primary legacy it seems strange that he is denying himself this lap of honour.
Many commentators regard the growth of the Irish economy during his 11 year tenure to be his other main achievement and indeed many the voters who re-elected him for the third time last year will probably feel this is more important to them that whatever happened ‘up North’. In truth it may be too soon to judge his economic legacy. The extent to which the Republic has built firm economic foundations will be judged over the next few years while house and other asset prices re-adjust downwards and the funds from Europe finally stop. It is undoubtedly the case, however, that under ‘Bertie’ the ‘Celtic Tiger’ achieved great things and the economy developed hugely. The pharmaceutical sector consolidated and the IT and financial services sectors flourished leaving the economy transformed.
We’ll leave the detailed analysis of Bertie’s career to others, however, the complicated accounts of foreign currency being paid in and out of bank accounts and the peculiar explanations leave one thankful that Bertie gave up accountancy and became a politician.

Sectarian attacks continue

The seemingly ever present threat of sectarian thuggery remerged this week when a man was left critically injured after an attack in Belfast city centre. The attack, reputedly carried out by football supporters, is just the most recent of a series of similar incidents. The attack was the cue for Republicans to continue their ‘sabre-rattling’ about the ‘inadequacies’ of the PSNI which it began after the murder of Bap McGreevy. This led to media headlines that the police had been forewarned about the attack – which it turns out relates to a phone call from bar staff less than half an hour before the incident.

Republicans upset by attack on Adams

Republicans were so incensed by a column written by Robin Livingstone in the Andersonstown News that the newspaper removed the offending column from its website and printed an apology. The ‘Squinter’ column, like the rest of the paper, has for a long time been an uncritical supporter of Sinn Fein and Gerry Adams but the column sought to accuse Gerry Adams of falling to recognise his responsibilities with regard to the social problems of West Belfast.
The column would probably not have been noticed much beyond West Belfast but the ‘censorship’ of ‘Squinter’ and the original criticisms were then carried by a number of other newspapers – including some with large GB circulations.

Abortion to be used as ‘bargaining chip’?

The Blair government was quite happy to use the number of councils, academic selection and water charges as ‘tools’ with which to drive an agreement in the run up to St Andrews. Would Gordon Brown, who shows little sign of being worried about the views of NI voters, use the threat of bringing NI abortion laws in line with GB to force a deal on the devolution of policing and justice?