Despite huge amounts of media coverage and commentary about what might or what might not happen in the Enniskillen by election the result was fairly predictable:
2008 by-election
Debbie Coyle (SF) 1816 1816 (28.8% +0.3%)
Rosemary Flanaghan (SDLP) 739 (11.7% -6.5%)
Arlene Foster (DUP) 1925 (30.6% +2.4%)
Basil Johnston (UUP) 1436 (22.8% + 2.3%)
Dr Kumar Kamble (All) 231 (3.6%)
Karen McHugh (Ind) 158 (2.5%)
Combined Unionist Vote 53.4% +4.7%
Combined Nationalist Vote 43.0% -3.7%
2005 local government election Enniskillen DEA
Votes by Party:
SF: 2,486 (28.5%), 2 seats
DUP: 2,454 (28.2%), 2 seats
UUP: 1,785 (20.5%), 1 seat
SDLP: 1,584 (18.2%), 2 seats
Soc Party: 406 (4.7%)
Essentially the unionist vote coalesced around the unionist front runner – the DUP and the nationalist vote largely coalesced around the nationalist front runner – SF. It is unclear why the nationalist vote – especially the SDLP share - dropped so markedly. Was it disinterest by SDLP supporters or did the SF squeeze on the SDLP fail to compensate for the numbers of disillusioned SF voters who did not vote?
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