Isn't it ironic.....

It was ironic that as the ballot papers were counted in for the election race to Europe, it was Europe that summed it all up with its iconic 80’s song ‘The final countdown’. And what a final countdown it was too, with a surreal excitement appearing as the voting slips were being sifted and tallied to give a picture on the shape of Northern Ireland politics that few could have foreseen.

European polls used to be seen as a simple sectarian headcount, with the usual two unionist candidates elected, and the SDLP’s John Hume securing the nationalist seat.

Since 2004 the SDLP seat has become almost impossible to win for the party. Sinn Féin edged the SDLP out, and now we have, what had previously been entirely unforeseen, Sinn Féin topping the poll and elected on first count. Oh, how things have changed.

That they have lost their one European seat in the Republic of Ireland – previously held by Sinn Féin deputy leader, Mary Lou MacDonald – will be quickly skirted over by the party.

The reduction of seats in the Dublin Euro constituency from four to three always made it more difficult for MacDonald to hold on. However, whatever the reasons for the loss, Sinn Fein can no longer claim to have all-island European representation.

However, the battle royale between the three Unionist candidates has been the one most closely watched by the pundits.

Even when Ian Paisley Senior stepped aside, Jim Allister – then standing as the DUP candidate – was virtually guaranteed a seat in the European Parliament. This time, the party’s candidate Diane Dodds held onto that hitherto ‘safe’ DUP seat by her fingernails.

The collapse of the DUP vote can be attributed to many factors. The party was not untouched by the MPs’ expenses scandal despite the robust defence by Peter Robinson and Gregory Campbell on the airwaves. Also, whether Dodds was the right candidate will be subjected to an in-party post-mortem discussion. Her performance on the BBC’s Politics Show was criticised by pundits and slammed on reputable websites. But, was it more a case that no-one else in the party wanted to accept the poisoned chalice of running against Jim Allister?

Allister’s TUV ran a clear and competent campaign, albeit one focussed on negativity directed entirely at the DUP. Even though he lost his seat 70,000 votes is some showing and will be a jolt to the DUP. A jolt that will have DUP strategists scratching their heads in advance of Westminster and Stormont elections.

Strategists behind the Conservative/Ulster Unionist match-up will be a little more content at the showing of Jim Nicholson. While he was 6,000 first preference votes short of Dodds total, it represents a credible first outing for a marriage that had a rocky start. Whether Nicholson has benefited from the Conservative bounce on the back of Labour’s election woes or not, it will be seen by the Cameron-ites of the UUP as justification for moving forward with the tentative alliance.

But when the dust has settled on the election results, and the pundits pore over the ramifications for future elections the fact remains that we have three MEPs.

In the new dynamic of an extended European Union, the voice of Northern Ireland can no longer be guaranteed to be heard on key debates on the economy, agriculture, structural funding and other pressing matters.

European gravy tastes much better than Westminster gravy or Assembly fudge, but it will be up to our newly elected MEPs to prove that they deserve our continued electoral support.

This week on the Hill

While there were political rows in the media about the number of councils and the Maze stadium, proceeds in the House were fairly restrained. The debate on the Eames/Bradley Consultative Group on the Past tabled by David Burnside enabled him to get a lot of things of this chest about Ian Paisley but did not greatly add to the sum of human knowledge.

Likewise, the debate on the Report of the Assembly Review Committee into the devolution of policing and justice didn’t tell us anything we didn’t already know. Yes, the parties have made considerable progress on agreeing the mechanics of how it would work but no there was no progress on deciding when it would happen.

Perhaps the most telling remark came from Gerry Adams. In response to considerable provocation from the DUP about how they would block any transfer of policing and justice powers for the foreseeable future, Adams threatened to retaliate by blocking….any idea of a new stadium at Blanchflower Park. Mr Adams has been upping his profile again in recent weeks but as a gesture it revealed more about how Sinn Féin are tied into the process than anything else.

Re-shaping health

Does anyone know what the future shape of health and social care in Northern Ireland will be? Well, we hope the minister does, but we're not really sure. The department is heading out to consult on the new plans, but on Friday the people in the private and voluntary sector will have a chance to hear from leading commentators on the proposed new arrangements on commissioning and local involvement. To find out more email Simon.

Who's chuckling now?

A fortnight ago we speculated that Ian Paisley might resign in the summer and that we might have a new First Minister come the return from Recess in the September. As it turns, out Paisley’s tenure will not last until the start of the Summer Recess at the end of June. He is managing to cling on until the first anniversary purely by announcing now that his resignation will take effect in two months time.

Much has been written about Paisley’s career – both the pre and post 8 May 2008 versions and we do not intend to revisit this here. It is worth noting, however, that many people have argued that it was Paisley’s decision to present his relationship with Sinn Féin as a business-like and functioning arrangement – the ‘chuckle brothers’ - that grated with many of his supporters and lead to his downfall. This could well be the case.

However, to present this as the failings of an elderly man who had his ego flattered may be missing the point. It could be the case that Paisley calculated that in order to cement the power-sharing relationship and avoid it looking like it could collapse at any time, it was necessary for him to create the ‘chuckle brothers’ image.

Those who pushed him out – and it is certainly the case that he was pushed – would do well to remember that only Paisley could have made this deal and only he could have cemented it through the ‘chuckle brothers’ routine.

Last hurrah for the Big Man?

The Big Man is bowing out. There got that out. Less than six months ago it would have been an unthinkable statement.

As had been trailed, suggested, hinted at, whispered about and generally dominated Assembly gossip for the past two weeks, Ian Paisley Snr announced today that he will be handing over the Big Blue First Minister's briefcase in May.

The resignation caused a few raised eyebrows over the timing, not the fact that the Big Man was jacking it in. At 81 (he'll be 82 in April) time was sure to be limited, despite his assertions and Baroness Paisley's Telegraph interview.

Of course, once the teatime news 'broke' the story there has ensued a frenzy of commentators (is that the right collective noun?) tripping over hyperbole to appear on every TV or radio station in the western hemisphere - even the Chinese news agency Xinhau filed copy for European and Sino news addicts.

As is the wont of news outlets at time like these, some unfortunate researchers are sent out, phone in hand, to gather the comments of the great, the good and the downright average. The BBC collection of such comments includes fulsome (in the old fashioned meaning of the word - sickly and less than sincere!) praise from remote control politicians, and barbed japes from local opponents. David Ford has a swipe, along with Danny Kennedy on the BBC site Try not to snigger at Gordon Brown and David Cameron's comments!

The DUP comments have been led by Robinson, who now takes on the undeclared role of heir apparent, while as of 11pm on the 4th March the profile of the self-appointed elder statesman has yet to be updated to reflect his resignation.

As the welter commentary dies down (head to Slugger O'Toole where Shakesperian quotations have even been drawn into the discussion) the reality is that the resignation has ensured a dozen or so weeks of speculation over Robinson's first series of ministerial appointments...well that is if he gets the FM job. And, who would bet against him?